Where did half of the accounts end up?
—Median ending balanceEDUCATIONAL SIMULATOR
Trading Strategy Survival Simulator
See how the same win rate and payoff assumptions can lead to different account paths depending on trade order.
We run 5,000 simulated accounts so you can see the range, not just one outcome.
STEP 1 · Your assumptions
Trade setup
Enter the trading assumptions you want to test. Example values are filled in to start.
Example values show how the simulator works. They are not a recommendation.
STEP 3 · Understand the results
Simulation results
Inputs changed. Recalculate to update the results.
Simulating 5,000 paths
Repeating your trades to track balance and drawdown.
0.0sNothing calculated yet
Review your inputs,
then press Calculate.
We’ll answer three simple questions first,
then show the detailed metrics and charts.
Where did it end?Median ending balance
How far did it fall?Drawdown in bad sequences
Could it keep going?Paths that stopped early
The same inputs never produce just one result.
Start here
Three questions to read the results
How far did it fall when trades went badly?
—Worst 5% max drawdown · P95Did any accounts have to stop trading?
—Paths that couldn’t keep tradingKey metrics for experienced users
Median of 5,000 results
—Half of the simulations ended higher, half lower.Paths that ended above the start
—Ending balance above the starting balanceTypical max drawdown
—Median of each path’s largest peak-to-trough dropPaths that fell to 50% or below
—Dropped to half the starting balance at least onceThis isn’t a forecast. It shows 5,000 simulated outcomes when the same win rate and payoff play out in a different order of wins and losses.
Fixed Amount vs. Compounding
Both methods use the same seed and the exact same sequence of wins and losses.
Fixed AmountEvery trade uses the amount per trade you entered.
CompoundingEach trade uses a fixed share of the current balance, so trade size rises after gains and shrinks after losses.
| Metric | Fixed Amount | Compounding |
|---|
The highlighted column is the method you selected. If one method runs out of money, it stops trading, but the other method’s win/loss sequence doesn’t change.
Account range across 5,000 simulations
Same inputs, different order of wins and losses.
Unlucky 5%—
Median—
Lucky 5%—
The middle line is the median; the outer lines are the lucky and unlucky 5% levels (P95 and P05). Each point summarizes all 5,000 balances at that trade, not three individual accounts. Accounts that stopped keep their last balance. Up to 200 points are plotted. This is not a forecast range.
Ending balance after 500 trades
Not a single prediction — the spread of 5,000 possible endings.
The horizontal axis is ending balance and the vertical axis is the number of paths. All paths are included; accounts that stopped early count at their last balance. Focus a bar to read its range and share.
Sample account paths 15 real paths
15 paths picked at random from the 5,000, regardless of outcome. Even with the same win rate and payoff, the order and number of wins change each path.
These are individual paths, not the percentile lines above. A path that stops keeps its last balance. A new seed picks new sample paths.
Detailed results
- Unlucky 5% (P05)
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- Median ending balance
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- Lucky 5% (P95)
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- Chance of ending below the start
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- Worst 5% max drawdown
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- Paths that couldn’t keep trading
- Drawdown of 10%+
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- Drawdown of 20%+
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- Drawdown of 30%+
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- Longest losing streak · average
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- Longest losing streak · 95th percentile
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- Seed for this run
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A losing streak counts executed trades with a net loss after costs. Any trade at $0 or better resets the count. The 95th percentile is interpolated and can be a decimal.
Couldn’t keep trading: the account didn’t have enough money for the next requested trade. Running short after the final trade doesn’t count.
Reading the numbers
What these results mean
These results reflect your assumptions. They don’t rate a strategy as good or bad.
A new seed can still produce the same median or rounded percentages. That’s not an error — compare the distribution and sample paths as well.
Guide
Understand the results, and the numbers look different
Eight things worth knowing before you run the simulator and while you read the results.
What does this simulator show?
It shows the many paths an account could take if you repeated trades with your win rate, profit target, and stop loss. Set 500 trades, and it builds 5,000 virtual accounts that each make 500 trades. Instead of one target return, you see where results tend to land and how far an account can fall along the way.
It can’t tell you whether your assumptions hold up in real markets. Use it to compare how different assumptions change the outcome.
Why win rate alone isn’t enough
You can win 7 out of 10 trades and still lose money. Win $100 seven times and lose $300 three times, and you’re down $200 before costs. That’s why the size of each win and loss matters as much as how often you win.
Costs make it worse. The single-trade preview under Advanced includes fees and slippage, so read its break-even win rate alongside your raw win rate.
What is the payoff ratio?
Here, the payoff ratio compares one winning trade’s gain to one losing trade’s loss. A 3% profit target and a 2% stop loss give a ratio of 1.5 before costs. Fees and slippage shrink the win and enlarge the loss, so the net ratio is lower.
Profit and loss are price moves, not returns on margin. Leverage scales both the position and its costs, so check the stop-out loss in the single-trade preview when you raise it.
Fixed Amount vs. Compounding
Fixed Amount uses the same trade size no matter how the balance moves. Start with $10,000 and $1,000 per trade, and you’ll still trade $1,000 when the account reaches $20,000. If the next trade can’t be funded, that account stops.
Compounding keeps the starting ratio — 10% in that example — so you’d trade $2,000 at $20,000 and $500 at $5,000. Trade size changes on the way down as well as up. The comparison applies the same wins and losses to both, and neither method is always better.
What is max drawdown?
Max drawdown (MDD) is the biggest drop from a previous peak. If an account grows from $1,000 to $1,200 and then falls to $900, it lost $300 from its peak — a 25% drawdown, even though it’s only 10% below where it started.
The drawdown stays on record even if the account recovers. This simulator measures balances after each trade closes, so it doesn’t capture unrealized losses during a trade.
How should I read the results?
The median is the middle ending balance when all 5,000 are sorted. Because some values repeat, exactly half won’t always be above or below it. Look at the unlucky 5% and lucky 5% levels together to see the spread the median hides.
The main chart shows the distribution at each trade; the sample paths are 15 real individual accounts; the histogram shows how many accounts ended in each range. The worst 5% max drawdown is the 95th-percentile cutoff, not the average of the worst 5% or the largest possible loss.
Why do results change a little each run?
Each normal run uses a new random seed, so the order of wins and losses — and the actual number of wins — changes. Even with 5,000 samples, no two runs are identical.
The median or rounded percentages can also come out the same with a new seed. To review a specific result, copy its seed into Advanced and turn on “Use the same seed.” The same inputs and simulator version reproduce it exactly.
What this simulator leaves out
It doesn’t model exchange liquidation or maintenance margin, funding rates, maker/taker fee differences, win rates that shift with market conditions, or slippage that changes with order size. Round-trip costs are based on the entry value, not the exit value.
Every trade is assumed to have the same win rate, profit target, and stop loss, and to be independent of the others. Real losing streaks, price gaps, and unfilled orders aren’t reproduced, and staying within the allowed risk range doesn’t make a real account safe.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
Why do results differ with the same win rate?
The win rate is the probability that each trade hits its target, not a fixed number of wins. At 55%, the actual number and order of wins varies from path to path. If no account stops and the win count is the same, reordering trades can give the same ending balance, but the path and drawdown along the way will differ.
What does “5,000 simulations” mean?
It means 5,000 virtual accounts with the same settings. With 500 trades, each account makes up to 500 trades. It doesn’t mean one account trading 5,000 times, and accounts that can no longer fund a trade stop early.
How are Fixed Amount and Compounding different?
Fixed Amount keeps using the amount per trade you entered, while Compounding uses a fixed share of the current balance. The comparison uses the same win/loss sequence for both, so luck doesn’t differ between them — though one may run out of money first.
What is max drawdown?
It’s the largest percentage drop from a previous high. Even an account that ends in profit can have a big drawdown along the way. “Typical max drawdown” is the median of all 5,000 paths’ max drawdowns.
Does this predict my actual returns?
No. It’s an educational tool that compares possible outcomes if your win rate and payoff hold steady. It doesn’t verify those assumptions or recommend any investment, and the percentages shown aren’t the odds of real future returns.
Can I use it for stocks and crypto?
Yes. It models percentage price moves without assuming an asset type, so you can compare assumptions for either. Taxes, lot sizes, trading hours, borrowing terms, and exchange liquidation rules aren’t included, and it doesn’t replace a real P&L statement.
Why include fees and slippage?
Costs shrink the profit when a target is hit and deepen the loss when a stop is hit. Enter per-side costs and the simulator applies them on entry and exit. Real slippage depends on order size and market conditions; here it’s assumed to be the same every trade.
Before you rely on it
What the model doesn’t capture
This is an educational simulator for comparing assumptions.
It doesn’t guarantee any investment result.
Win rate, profit target, and stop loss are fixed for every trade. Costs are applied round trip on the entry value, not the exit value. Balances and drawdowns are measured when each trade closes.